Pre-Brexit Britain woke up to an early Brexit reality on Monday: a future of near-complete isolation and blockade by Europe. With the emergence of the mutated Covid-19 variant – VUI-202012/01 – B.1.17., Britain, the country of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (“Mad Cow Disease”), is seeing its neighbors erect barriers – international restrictions or an outright ban on travel on the eve of its “Brexit” from Europe. This is all happening pre-Brexit.
European Blockade
To keep out Britain’s highly infectious new strain of the coronavirus, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Switzerland, Spain, and others across the EU have announced varying bans on passenger air travel and freight from the U.K. Some 40 countries, European and internationally, have enacted some form of restriction on in-coming from Britain. Other countries were considering similar measures to prevent the new Covid-19 mutation’s local spread, leading up to the Christmas holiday season.
On Sunday, Ireland, which has significant passenger traffic with the UK at this time of year, announced a 48-hour ban from midnight of flights arriving from England, Wales, and Scotland. It stated that “In the interests of public health, people in Britain, regardless of nationality, should not travel to Ireland, by air or sea.” In other words, if you’re Irish in Britain, you’re not welcome home for Christmas this year.
But it was Belgium’s suspension of flights and train arrivals from the UK from midnight on Sunday, the Netherlands’ ban on passenger flights and ferry passengers from the UK, and France’s 48-hour ban on passengers and accompanying freight that caused the most disruption.
France suspended all travel links, including freight lorries, from midnight on Sunday. This meant that freight-haulers with millions of pounds of exports were backed up for many miles, waiting for passage to cross into France. Some had to return to their points of origin or be sheltered in a local Kent airport – now looking like a makeshift refugee camp for truckers. Others caught in the sudden dragnet were truckers returning home to Europe for Christmas.
On the French side, freight haulers on their way to Britain also turned back because they were unsure of being able to cross back to The Continent once they entered. Eurotunnel also suspended service at Folkestone from 10 pm GMT for traffic heading to Calais. The ferry terminal at Dover is now closed for all accompanying traffic leaving the UK until further notice due to those French restrictions.
The United States is so far the lone hold-out. Adm. Brett Giroir, the U.S. official overseeing coronavirus testing, told ABC News’ “This Week,” “I really don’t believe we need to do that yet.” Though, his belief that the new virus mutation is localized in the U.K. and his confidence in no vaccine escape, “We have not seen a single (virus) mutation yet that would make it evade the vaccine.” might both be short-lived.
Mutation Discovery
In September, British scientists identified and recorded the new variant VUI-202012/01 – B.1.1.7 – as part of a broad worldwide effort to track mutations of the virus. The Covid-19 Genomics U.K. Consortium, which brings together universities, medical research institutes, and public health agencies, has, since the beginning of the pandemic, mapped the genetic makeup of almost 150,000 virus samples taken from infected individuals.
They uploaded their findings to a global initiative called Gisaid – an extensive database that collects similar data from scientists across the world. The researchers involved in the consortium published a scientific paper online Friday outlining the VUI-202012/01 – B.1.1.7 variant’s features.
At a hurriedly-convened news conference on Saturday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson introduced a new tier four-level set of restrictions for London and south-east England restrictions where the new VUI-202012/01 – B.1.1.7 variant is spreading like wildfire. Government officials and some health experts said that there was no evidence the new variant was deadlier or would react differently to vaccines, but that it was up to 70% more transmissible.
Nervtag
From genomic data, Nervtag, a group of scientists that advises the U.K. government, estimates that the new variant is between 67% and 75% more transmissible than older strains, according to minutes of a Dec. 18 meeting published Sunday. This portends poorly for infection rates, an overburdened National Health Service (NHS), and ultimate death rates in the months ahead. Other health experts caution skepticism. They note that the genetic change in the mutation could increase the viral load’s potency but have seen no such evidence to date.
Prime Minister Johnson said the variant might increase the R-number (reproduction value – the average number of people an infected person goes on to infect, which indicates the growth or declining rate of an epidemic) by 0.4. But Nervtag estimates the new variant’s R-number might be between 0.39 and 0.93 higher than existing strains.
The VUI-202012/01 – B.1.1.7. variant has 17 distinct relevant modifications (23, if we include additional changes that serve no function), the most notable of which is the virus’s spike protein that dots the virus’s surface and is the means by which it breaks into a host’s cells. Another of its mutations, N501Y, is associated with increased infectivity in animal experiments. And yet another has been linked to improvements in the virus’s ability to enter specific cells in a host’s airways.
Of immediate concern for Britain and beyond is the detectability of the new strain. Is it harder to detect using existing Covid-19 tests? Babak Javid, associate professor of infectious diseases at the University of California, San Francisco, told The Wall Street Journal that the mutations have helped researchers track the variant’s spread in Britain. The standard polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, tests for the coronavirus home in on three segments of the virus genome. One of those signals fails with the new variant. That two-thirds result has become a telltale sign of this specific variant in lab results.
The VUI-202012/01 – B.1.1.7 strain has been detected across the U.K., outside of Northern Ireland, with heavy concentration in London, the South East, and eastern England. Cases elsewhere in the country are sparse. In November, it made up around a quarter of London cases; this reached nearly two-thirds of cases in mid-December. Like most mutations, it is rapidly replacing older versions of the virus to become the dominant strain. The frightening possibility of the virus changing to dodge the vaccine’s full effect, vaccine escape, also exists. This could have profound effects on the mega-vaccine rollout now underway in the U.K. and beyond.
Nextrain Sequencing
Nextstrain, which monitors viral samples’ genetic codes worldwide, has identified cases in Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Australia as having come from the U.K., Italy, Spain, and France have since detected local cases of the variant. In South Africa, yet another Covid-19 mutation – 501.V2 – has been detected.
This new variant shows some similarities to the one identified in the U.K., but British officials believe it mutated independently in South Africa. It is now the dominant strain driving the second wave of infections across the country. According to Salim Abdool Karim, an infectious diseases epidemiologist and Director of the Center for the AIDS Program of Research in South Africa, “We are finding between 80% and 90% of the virus is this 501.V2 mutant.”
This mutation is one of the worst things that could happen to the U.K. on the eve of Brexit. In less than two weeks, Britain will exit the European Union under a likely acrimonious No-Deal-Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his administration have gotten an early wake-up call. With dwindling sympathies from its neighbors with their own public health concerns, pandemic-driven isolation could see Britain facing shortages of food supplies and critical medical supplies needed to keep its health service afloat.
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